US HRC prices rose by 57% Q-o-Q driven by a combination of tighter supply, rising scrap prices, and limited imports. Steel supply is expected to recover as the US mill capacity utilization rate has rebounded to 75% from a bottom of 72% in the last quarter. With new capacity ramping up steel prices are expected to stabilize.

EU HRC prices went up by 19% Q-o-Q due to sluggish steel output from the previous quarter. The outlook for end-user demand remains unfavorable; with EU mills offering high prices and extended delivery lead times, imports may start to become more attractive. These factors may limit the extent of the price increases that local producers are able to implement.

CN HRC remained flat, with a slight increase of 1%, caused by signs of recovery from automotive and property sectors in March. With production output decreasing during the past 3 months, downstream demand recovering as the economy reopened after long COVID restrictions, and rising iron ore prices, CN HRC prices are on an upward trajectory.

US HRC prices declined by 3% Q-o-Q in Jan’23 due to the fear of recession and soft demand. The steel supply is expected to decline in Q1’23 as US mill capacity utilization rate approaching 70%, rising scrap price may also fuel US HRC price rally in Q1’23.

EU HRC prices fell 12% Q-o-Q in Jan’23, due to sluggish demand from steel using industries. As a result of high production costs and soft demand, EU mills are idling capacity to maintain current prices and prevent losses. The price is expected to pick up in Q1 as supply short and stock depletion, but the lack of substantial demand increase discourages lasting price rallies.

CN HRC increased 13% as a result of positive market sentiment due to the lifting of Covid restrictions. Price increase in Q4’22 was driven by reduced production, ease of COVID restrictions and supportive policies from government to stimulate the real-estate sector. The price may go up in Q1’23 if the demand from construction rebounds.