Q1 2023 Steel Report Overview

US HRC prices declined by 3% Q-o-Q in Jan’23 due to the fear of recession and soft demand. The steel supply is expected to decline in Q1’23 as US mill capacity utilization rate approaching 70%, rising scrap price may also fuel US HRC price rally in Q1’23.

EU HRC prices fell 12% Q-o-Q in Jan’23, due to sluggish demand from steel using industries. As a result of high production costs and soft demand, EU mills are idling capacity to maintain current prices and prevent losses. The price is expected to pick up in Q1 as supply short and stock depletion, but the lack of substantial demand increase discourages lasting price rallies.

CN HRC increased 13% as a result of positive market sentiment due to the lifting of Covid restrictions. Price increase in Q4’22 was driven by reduced production, ease of COVID restrictions and supportive policies from government to stimulate the real-estate sector. The price may go up in Q1’23 if the demand from construction rebounds.